STRATEGIC PLAN OF ACTION ON POLL SWINGING FOR PRESIDENT JONATHAN
Should it become practically impossible to stop the March 28 Presidential Elections, the PDP shall have no choice but to fall back on a strategic master plan that will ensure that votes are swinged in its favour in some carefully selected states in he six geopolitical zones.
We have done an extensive survey of the states taking into consideration nearly all the key factors and interplay of forces that could determine the outcome of Election in the zones.
- NORTH WEST ZONE (NW)
APC is very strong in virtually all the states in the North West. However, our studies have also revealed that the PDP has opportunities to swing the votes in three of the six states that n1ake up the North West. The three states are, Sokoto, Kaduna, and· Kebbi. We suggest that heavy deployment of military and other security personnel be made in these three states with specific instruction to cooperate with the PDP.
Identify INEC officials and other party agents including those of the APC for huge financial inducements to swing votes for PDP.
- NORTH EAST (NE)
With the exception of Gombe and partly Adamawa States where the PDP is expected to make some significant impact, the other four states are keen supporters of the APC presidential candidate. But we have also noticed that the PDP has an opportunity of swinging votes in Taraba, Gombe and Yobe states to boost the chances of Mr. President.
We are recommending similar strategy to be adopted in the selected states in the North West for the North East as well. In addition however, the PDP must be extremely cautious not to rake in excess votes that could easily lead to suspicions given the prevailing security situation in the area.
What is being suggested here is that vote swing in these zones should match relatively with the expected low voter turn out in the zone so as not to create credibility problem ab-initio for the officials and personnel who will be engaged for the exercise.
Key government officials should also be deployed in this direction for strategic reasons.
- NORTH CENTRAL (NC)
The PDP should target Kwara, Kogi, Benue and Nassarawa states. Our studies have shown that the zone is traditionally a PDP zone but presently the APC has made very serious inroad in such a manner that the PDP’s strength has diminished significantly in the zone.
However, owing to the large followership that PDP still enjoys in Kogi, Benue, Nasarawa and the Northern part of Kwara State there is a window of opportunity to swing the votes. This can be achieved by deploying huge military personnel and enough financial inducements to INEC officials and party agents. It is expected that the zone will record very large voter turnout during the presidential Elections which lives the PDP with a good opportunity of swinging relatively large percentage of the votes for President Jonathan.
- SOUTH WEST (SW)
This zone is the most difficult and delicate to deal with. Because of the high level of enlightenment and political education among the people1 vote swinging here may be a little tough for the PDP, but not impossible.
It is clear that the North West and South West share a lot in common in both population and support for the APC. However, the PDP will have to confront the challenge with iron cast resolve to swing the poll in at feast four states in the South West. These are Ekiti, Ondo, Lagos and Oyo. For these states, monetary or financial inducement may not produce expected results. Our studies have shown that both INEC officials and party· agents in most of the South
Western states do not easily succumb to monetary inducements. The Electorate in this part of the country are known for their hot headedness and are ever alert to moves being made by Election officials and ·the security agents -at Election times. They hardly give room for officials to manipulate the process.
To achieve the swing therefore will require a great deal of resolve on the part of that PDP to confront this big challenge. We are recon1mending that military presence should be established on a very high scale in the identified states on the Election Day. It may also be useful to profile son1e of the key leaders of the APC in these states a few days to the election for attempted’ acts of instigating violence and intimidation of PDP candidates and supporters.
The idea here is to enable the police and other security agencies invite these official for safe keeping in their custody until election are done with. We have realized that the close networking between APC officials and their field officers. Agents at election time have often prevented Election Officials and the security from tampering with results or doing anything to favour the opposition. We recommend that everything must be done to break or weaken this network so as to live some window of opportunity for the vote swinging strategy to be implemented. The Minister of Police Affairs should be actively on duty in these states to oversee the implementation of this plan.
We are also suggesting that the Nigeria Communication Commission, NCC should be involved at the level of interfering with the communication gadgets of all known APC bigwigs in the South West 24hrs before and after the Presidential Election so as to break or weaken the network between them and their field officers for the election period .
Restriction of top level APC officials is very necessary. Concerted effort rnust be made to work on the statistics of Oyo and Lagos states and local governments that attracts heavy votes.
- SOUTH – SOUTH (SS)
The PDP should move into Rivers, Edo and Akvva Ibom with huge rnilitary deployment. It is not expected that Election in this key states will be without incidents. Giving the iron cast determination of Gov. Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers and Adams Oshiomole of Edo to deliver their states to the APC Presidential candidate.
In addition to military deployment, the headship of INEC officials could also be compromised with huge financial inducements. It may also be useful to enlist the services of son1e Ex-militants whose jobs basically will be to instill fear and intimidation into non PDP promoters and supporters in order to create or enhance the window of opportunity to swing the votes for PDP. Divide and rule tactics should be deployed in these states for desired result.
SOUTH EAST (SE)
This is the easiest of zones for the PDP. What we have found here is that the APC though has a good presence, does not really constitute major threat to
PDP. Vote swinging in this zone will be at the pleasure of PDP, that is if the party finds the need to do so. Apart from states like Imo and, Ebonyi the
APC is very unlikely to do well at the presidential poll in this zone. However, in order not to take things for granted, some light military presence and security personnel may be in order. Here, the PDP is not required to put much financial resource on election officials and party agents for the obvious reason that its chances of winning the presidential elections here are not under any treat whatsoever. The Propaganda that profiles APC standard bearer as an Islamic extremist has stuck on the opposition candidate like super glue and there is little they can do to change the perception of the average Igbo man about Gen. Buhari.
It is instructive to reiterate that the vote swing strategy as recommended for the zones is without prejudice to the sole objective of winning the election at all cost. The party should decide whether it is ready to win the polls using all the means and resources available to it and prepare for the legal battle to follow, or allow itself to be defeated and head for the courts as the underdog.
With Elections in Nigeria, experience has shown that is it better to fight from the position of strength. The idea of struggling in court after a defeat should not be contemplated at all. For it will be a share waste of time. The poll swinging strategy is aimed at harvesting between thirty to thirty four million votes for the PDP presidential candidate across twenty-eight states of the Federation including the FCT.
On the basis of the zones, officials who will implement this strategy must ensure that the presidential candidate collect at least between six and seven million votes each in the South-South, South East and North Central totaling 21 million. And for the South West the plan targets at least six million votes, North East 4 million, and Northern East 3 million votes.
South – South – 6 million votes
South- East – 7 million votes
North Central – 6 million votes
South West – 6 million votes
North West – 4 million votes
North East – 3 million votes
FCT – 1 million votes
Grand Total = 23 million votes
Contacts at INEC reliably informed our team that the target voter turnout overall nationwide is not expected to exceeded 50 million out of which it is projected that about 1 million votes may be voided.
For effective implementation of this strategy we recommend that a tactical team of about one thousand men and women be constituted to be deployed to states. Owing to the very complex nature of this exercise, we suggest that each zone should present at least one Hundred people for this exercise.
They are to undergo induction course on the process of vote swinging at the discrete location. The PDP should as a matter of necessity set up a control room within a safe location at the FCT where the activities of all poll swinging officers can be effectively monitored. All officers involved in this exercise should be advised to use only text message when contacting the control room.
Tools needed for this exercise include the following.
Procurement of Ballot boxes
We have recommended the procurement of about fifty thousand ballot boxes ahead of the general elections to be distributed amongst the identified states in the North-West and the Norti)-East. We also recommend the procurement of ballot paper to be thumb-printed in favour of President Goodluck Jonathan.
Apart from states like Benue, Plateau, Kogi and Nasarawa, the remaining fifteen states in the North are to be treated as hostile to its presidential candidate for this elections. The six south-western states have also been classified as hostile states however the PDP may record a marginal win in
Ondo over the APC in the Presidential Elections. In the South-South Edo and Rivers have been singled out for special shock treatment reserved for similar hostile states in all the other zones in the North and South-West.
The South-East is generally regarded as the most friendly zone for the party with adequate measures to ensure that elections results are protected.
Ad-hoc Staff for INEC
We have recommended the recruitment of about five hundred staff for INEC who will be under strict instruction to work for the ruling party in this general election. Most of the Ad-Hoc staff are to be deployed in so called hostile states to enable the party, execute its plans of n1anipulating the electoral process there.
We have recommended that some election · observers and NGOs both foreign and local are to be heavily induced to work for the PDP in this elections. It is specifically recommended that 25% of the monies collected at the fund raising dinner be set aside for this purpose.
A committee comprising members of the strategist, the DSS, Police, Civil Defence, INEC and the Army is to be set up within the next two weeks to see to the effective implementation of the recommended strategies.
It is important to note that funds should be released to all key officials and groups 48 hrs to the Election date to allow full concentration on the job.